Monthly Archives: June 2015


How can you remove confusion from Elliott wave when purpose is to make profits

So, many times we as analysts start fighting over our Elliott Wave counts. I would like you look at the recent example which I have shared for, nifty it could be for any xyz stock. I am evaluating from the point of view of 2 different analysts.  They were seeing random charts to spot the trading opportunity with Elliott Wave analysis; soon they came up with their counts on this chart which were very different. The analysts are not going to marry this stock, they are only concerned with the next trading opportunity, enter the trade, make profit and exit and then scan some other chart. However, they started fighting and pointing fingers in each others analysis. Later their senior came in asked what was the case.

Analyst A: I believe that the impulsive with 1,2,3,4 done and 5th failed. (in black colour)

Analyst B: I believed, that ABC was over on the upside and now the wave 1 decline and wave 2 advance seems to be over. (in red colour)

NIFTY - Primary Analysis - Jun-20 0321 AM (1 hour)

Senior: So analyst A what do you expect after the 5th wave failure?

Analyst A: since the wave 5th has failed, it shows the underlying weakness in the market and this suggests a quick fall with high momentum, which can give us a good profit.

Senior: Good. (Turing towards Analyst B) and what did you expect?

Analyst B: Since wave 1 is over and 2 also seems to over, wave 3 must be followed which is steepest and longest, so I also expect market to go down. Oh god, (running towards his desk) I think I got my answer.

Analyst A: from now on we will keep the labeling discussion secondary, we will discuss that where is the market going, up or down and trade in that direction rather wasting time in fighting for counts.

Senior: Smiling towards both of them go and take the trade and let me know profits earned by each one of you. Don’t compete with each other this particular trade, there will be many opportunities like this every day. Your true trading skills will be tested in longer term, be patient.

Senior realizing the opportunity, shouts and says while just entering in his cabin, “let me know once you guys are done, I will try to go long once.”

This is just a example how two people can have different counts while still be right. Their senior represent a deeper character that hunts for bargains and waits patiently, mentors his subordinates.

Similarly, you also need to find your mentor within yourself. You can each day work and find 3 great things you did good in your trading and then you can write what 3 things you could have done differently, which could have saved you capital or increased your profits and stopped you from entering into wrong trades. Answer is with in you.


SBI reached 280 to 249 as projected by the Fibonacci Technique on 25th May 2015 1

SBI was projected on 25th May 2015 based on Just the Fibonacci technique (to learn and project such levels in advance, mail me ruchirgupta2000@gmail.com), the price that time was 280 and the projections were made to 2 zones in which the second zone was mentioned to be high probable. SBI traded around 249 on 16th June 2015.

SBIN - Primary Analysis - May-25 1254 PM (6 hour)

SBIN - Alternate 2 - Jun-17 1315 PM (1 hour)

No, Elliott Wave was used in it, this shows the power that Fibonacci technique has got. The people who fear learning Elliott Waves can learn just this technique to get the trading levels in advance. It is a very simple technique which could be learned in less time and could be applied instantly in the market.

This course is different from the traditional Fibonacci ratios which we already know. We are offering to use Fibonacci technique to use them in a different way, with many other Fibonacci Ratios rarely known to anyone. These Fibonacci ratios identify the target in advance by creating a confluence zone.


Nifty Gann Saturn Cycle Method suggests 7,200 levels if the current momentum continues 6

In the last few days, I have discovered a new cycle method of Saturn, with which we can get a lump sum of the price target in Nifty.

Since, I cant explain this method as the knowledge is only for my students, I am giving the outcomes of the final analysis which is giving levels for nifty near 7,200. This level is conservative we could see levels below this as well.

 

The target of 7200 is based on the current weekly momentum of nifty from 9100 till now. The Target range will change if nifty sees a sharp rally, but if we continue to decline without breaking the 8500 levels on the upside we could see 7200 in Nifty.

 

In Time I see the downturn to at least reach till end of July 2015 based on the Saturn Cycle.

This is just my personal view based on the New Gann Cycle that I discovered recently, it has been tested on the past instances but does not guarantee to work in future.


Find your trading edge in the market to improve your trading results

Reading this might improve your trading results DRAMATICALLY and help to identify your edge in the market. You don’t need any external source for this, you can find it by questioning yourself.

Not long ago, I was just thinking about past 9 years of trading and thinking what all stocks had given me profit and what all went in loss. Soon, I discovered that Nifty, INFY, Reliance Industries, R Com, Reliance Infra, SBI, Yes Bank, Canara Bank,ITC, HUL, IFCI, Tata steel, Sesa Goa(now Vedanta ltd) , SAIL, JWS Steel, Jindal Steel, Coal India, Adani Enterprises, HDIL, IB Real Est, Unitech,  REC, PFC, BIOCON, Ranbaxy, Arvind, ONGC, Century Textile, Mahindra and Mahindra, Mahindra Financeetc had always given me profits. I had earned profits in these stocks even when I did not know any technical analysis and Technical analysis improved my results even further.

Now on the losing side were Bank Nifty, ICICI Bank, DLF, TCS, Tata Motors, Reliance Capital, Ashok Leyland, Amtek Auto, Grasim, BHEL, RPL, Reliance Power, India Cement, Cairn India etc.

If you will note on the above list you will find that there is a string of Steel Stocks, when I noticed that I eventually concluded that I was making profits in those stocks even when I did not know any technical, Elliott Waves or Gann. Knowing these technicals improved my results further. But the fact was that I wasn’t able to realize that Steel sector was a bit more harmonious with my trading than other stocks and I was trading in all the stocks without realizing that I could have earned much more in Steel stocks and refrained myself from the losing stocks.

For example in the 2007, in my college days suggested my friend to book profit in SAIL at 149.95 and not at 150, he was able to book his 100 shares at that price bidding in advance. Because I had seen its reversals at 95 paisa tops many times (eg- 78.95, 59.95 etc), and that top was not broken till many days and weeks.  I did not knew any technical that time.

Now few days back I had a call with my Client for Elliott Waves who was stuck in Jindal Steel from 350 levels. I shared my experience what I had realised about myself for the steel sector and other unlucky stocks. Surprised with my words this person started sharing his experience that once he had bought GAIL and faced 30,000 loss he then connected the dots that the things coming from under the ground might not be giving trading edge to me. Then, he told that he was thinking to go long in Amtek Auto and Exit Jindal Steel, and Amtek Auto rallied from 40 to 190 levels in just 40 days.

In the call next day he came up with a list of some profit trades he did in the past. He said he had earned good profits in Tata Motars. He earned profits in Hero Honda. Things started getting linking very soon and he realized that he had an edge in Auto industry and these stocks had always given him profits. He gave 2 more examples of Eisher Motar where he earned intraday profits two times more than 10,000 each day. He disclosed that he was able to earn good money in Bajaj Electricals, which I don’t know in which sector operates in. Still I felt happy that he was able to identify his edge in the maze of the difficult market where he could earn money easily. He then finally admitted that he will do much better if he focused on these stocks and he had an edge in telecom stocks where he earned money in Bharti Airtel, Idea and even in Reliance Communication.

Your edge could be in particular currencies, or commodities, and now it depends on you to realize your edge and not somebody else.

Think for your trading results of your past and if you find a correlation, share your story with us  in the comment below. Hope this article will improve your trading even without learning any technical analysis.


HDIL Update on Elliott Wave Analysis, a broader review 8th June 2015

HDIL Elliott Wave Analysis a broader review. What I updated on 15th May 15 was the correction to 5 waves that started on 14th Dec 14. HDIL achieved its target. Now, lets look at the even bigger picture and where we stand in it. Preferred view is that the full 5 waves trend that started on August 2013, is under correction. While, the alternative view is that 1,2,3,4 are complete what has been labeled as 5th is 1st of the 5th wave. Volume analysis very much clarifies these doubts, and they suggest the preferred count.

Preferred Elliott Wave Count Analysis
For now, I am analyzing HDIL based on our preferred count, will interfere with new counts if alternate count shows its symptoms.

 

HDIL - Alternate 1 - Jun-08 1113 AM (1 week)

Time Analysis
Last time I disclosed that any correction must normally complete atleast complete 38% of the full impulse move. This time I am disclosing one more key to analyse correction. The correction of the full 5 waves must be greater is time and price as compared to 2nd and 4th wave of the smaller degree. Meaning that the corrections of 19 weeks in wave 2 and and 27 weeks in wave 4 must be exceeded Time wise. If we see the current correction in HDIL its just 7 weeks, you can know time wise a good time remains for time correction to get completed. This is the Elliott Wave Secret no one knows except me and few of my students who have started learning Elliott Waves with me.

Also, know that the 5 waves on upside have been 88 weeks, 38% of this comes at 33 weeks which again validates the correction greater than 27 weeks.

Price Analysis
You will note that the chart is set to semi- logarithmic scale, and on this scale when I analyse price of 4th wave which is Rs 55 in real terms, but from the top of 5th wave it stands out to be Rs 69. The top of 143 less 69 brings us to around 74. So, this implies HDIL must come to this area to meet the wave Price balance. Without the logarithmic scale, we must have reached 88, which we are already done with fall of 57 Rs and correction till 86.

Support Area
Now lets try to assess the area where it can take support.
1) We have got 74 from the price Analysis
2) We know that correction very often takes support on 4th wave area of a smaller degree, which is at 59. This is also one of the facts that very few people know about Elliott Wave.
3) Without logarithmic Internal retracements lie from 61 to 70 area representing 62% and 71% respectively.
4) With Logarithm the range is 75 to 61 with 38% and 50% internal retracements respectively.

So, I suppose by reading the 4 points you must have known the probable area of support which could be drawn from 74 to 59.

Is this information not useful? the analyst can very well refrain from entering HDIL entering HDIL investment at current prices and current times. Who would like to tie their investments for so many more weeks? or buy at 100 current price when he/she knows that the stock could be found on 74 to 59 levels. If you think Elliott Wave analysis is worth and is useful to you in identifying entries and exits based on Elliott Waves call me at 9005 979 886 to learn this great tool. I will teach you how to apply it. Thanks for reading.

You must the above article is for educational purpose with my views based on the Elliott wave analysis.


Nifty Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Analysis Update 4th June 15 4

Wave B failure
Previous Elliott Wave analysis on Nifty that suggested Wave B which was expected to go to 8680 levels to complete 62% retracement failed, which is worrisome and now the downside that has started is so steep, that we cant deny to break the recent lows of 7997, all of this is against the characteristics of 4th waves which are sideways corrections. Also, The C waves which are the last sections of the move have low momentum ie they are shallow and not steep like this one we are seeing.

Future Support Levels

Support levels of Downside based on Fibonacci Analysis suggest, 7965 to 7975 zone and then 7637 to 7698 zone. While in Elliott Wave terms the wave A which got over at 7997, which was 1100 points in length when measured from wave B top with various ratios to give wave C targets at 7780 at 62% equality to wave A, 7362 at 100% (which is what happens most of the time as wave A are mostly equal to wave C) and 6670 at 162%.

 

NIFTY - 1hour - Jun-04 0051 AM (6 hour)

 

There is a Gann Study which I follow and it unfolds the moves which are 500-800 points in Nifty, its occurrence is very rare(the direction is confirmed only after some evidence is there, Since I had all way views for wave B only towards bull direction because the wave C also suggesting the rally in Wave B (which ultimately failed). Now the direction is clearly down and I am looking for a proper entry point after a rally to get in have my share.
This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade. My purpose is purely educational as I believe in empowering the normal investor so that he can do his own analysis and trade for his living and safe himself from rumor or news based buying selling. I have my whole system to trade around these which I teach only to my students. To learn in detail please contact and message me in Inbox. My Email address is Ruchirgupta2000@gmail.com. and number is 9005 979 886 (try to call between 6-7 pm India time)

 

 


Elliott Waves and Fibonacci Support Zones for Spice Jet, Orissa Mineral

Elliott Waves and Fibonacci Support Zones for Spice Jet, Orissa Mineral

These are my views on some of the stocks that my clients asked about, I cant share the detailed views because of the scarcity of time, so only sharing the summary of what all levels could come in future.

Views on OrissaMine- Support Zone could move up or down based on how the internal waves unfold in the present C Wave on the downside. A, 5 wave down move is expected. targets between 1700- 1500 are expected within coming 3-4 months.

ORISSAMINE - Primary Analysis - Jun-03 2359 PM (6 hour)

 

Views on SpiceJet – Looking for a support zone near Rs. 15.50. It may go lower or reverse, but at this level I see many Fibonacci ratios falling near each other.

SpiceJet - Primary Analysis - Jun-03 2341 PM (6 hour)

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade. My is purely educational as I believe in empowering the normal investor so that he can do his own analysis and trade for his living and safe himself from rumor or news based buying selling. To learn in detail please contact and message me in Inbox. My Email address is Ruchirgupta2000@gmail.com and number is 9005 979 886 (try to call between 6-7 pm India time)


HDIL Elliott Wave analysis achieved its target today 3rd June 15

HDIL Elliott Wave analyses was done on  14/15th May 15 when the price was 108 and today it reached 87 as predicted, the following commentary on 15th May  was-

“Time is a critical factor in Elliott waves, the correction should always take atleast 38.2% of the time. generally between 38- 62 % and knowing this fact we should not enter HDIL for there is more correction to be made.
Price wise, you have seen 50% correction and still 38% time is to be met which will be met not before 8-10 trading days (visual interpretation). This opens the case of 62% retracement level which lies at 87. Wave C is going on.” Click here for Previous Report HDIL Elliott Wave- Price and Time Analysis 15 May 2015

Today, as of 3rd June 15, HDIL reached that 86 target zone! This 20% decline possibility was already predicted on many days prior to happening. Elliott wave provides a great perspective for when a trader must be in the market and when he must get out or when he should wait on the sideline for a better time to come, or to hunt for another stock with better possibilities.

HDIL - Primary Analysis - Jun-03 1530 PM (1 day)

 

This doesn’t means that the stock will not go lower, it can obviously go but as an Elliottician a trader can trade for the safe zone that has high probability and come out, focus on other stocks with higher probabilities. You will note in Tata steel, I was initially right with my analysis and still achieved the target and when I was expecting reversal, I got hints of contradiction and changed my view. Click her to view Tata steel Updates-

Tata Steel Elliott Wave Analysis 20th May 2015,

Tata Steel Elliott Wave Analysis 21st May 2015,

Tata Steel Elliott Wave Analysis 24th May 15

You, must note that without a time perspective Elliott Waves analysis become vulnerable to failure. A little known fact is that Robert Preachter use to combine Hurst Cycles with his Elliott waves to get the time perspective. RN Elliott and Hamilton Bolton, predicted markets for many decades in advance. You might Wonder when Elliott wave only gives price targets how can someone project the time. That is good query and that you were able to think on those lines. When this time analysis gets combined with Elliott Waves it gives amazing results such as this HDIL.

I would once again say that my purpose is educational, I dont want anyone to come blindly to learn Elliott Wave from me. I want to show how it works on real time basis and then only ask someone to come with me.

I have seen many and examined many other teachers who cherry pick a ideal chart that has already completed waves and then they show every label and Fibonacci ratio measurements in retrospect.

I want to show a perspective to Elliott wave that, If I can do it then you can also do it. Though it requires hard work compared to other technicals but its worth it. You will be surprised to know that I learned it 4-6 months, now it has been around a year. And before learning it, I gave up many times, but every time I gave up, I again got determined to learn it I knew that I was giving up coz I had been engaged in all easy technicals, candlesticks prior to learning Elliott Waves which had spoiled my habit to commit for a long term learning duration involved in learning Elliott Waves. Still, I consider my self a student and learn from my experience, analyse charts for hours, invent new tricks, which were not possible if I had not known Elliott Waves.