Yearly Archives: 2017


USD/INR monthly bull and bear cycle analysis

USD/INR Big bull run:

Since 1973, USD/INR has come across 11 big bull runs for a maximum of 294.22% in 106 months and a low of 9.72% in 12 months. Additionally, there are 67% (one time), 44% (one time), 32-36% (3 times), 17-20% (2 times) and 9-12% (2 times) bull runs.

Time Cycle: During the big run, the currency has rallied for 106 months, 73 months and 52 months. However, the other bull run ranges are 7 months (one time), 10-12 months (2 times), 15-18 months (4 times) and 21 months (one time).
Further, from high to high the currency tops b/w 15-110 months, however, most often it has taken 20-40 months period.

So, by this, we can deduce that from bottom USD/INR may top in 7-21months. Nevertheless, if the bull run continues it may go beyond 52+ months. Also, during the bull run, one can expect a minimum of 10% move.

USD:INR_withlog_bigbull_09Dec17 USD:INR_withoutlog_bigbull_09Dec17

USD/INR big bear cycles:

There are 21%(one time), 13-17%(5 times), 8-9%(three times) and 11% (one time) big bear cycles.

Time cycle: During the bear run, USD/INR has bottomed within 66 months (1 time), 29 months (1 time), 20 months (1 time), 13 months (1 time) and 5-9 months (5 times)(excluding current cycle).

So, any correction in USD/INR may generally take USD/INR down by at least 8%.

Now, the high on 25/02/2016(68.909) and low on 2/08/2017(63.595) which was nearly an 8% fall in 18 month period. If the low of 63.595 breaks, the market may go further down.

Further, from time cycle most of the times market bottom between 20-44 months. So, if we consider current market still in the downtrend we may see a further downfall from 68.909 top and stock may bottom in January 2018 (44 months). However, if the bearishness continues means it may go until 82+ months.

USD:INR_withoutlog_bigbear_09Dec17 USD:INR_withlog_bigbear_09Dec17


DLF: Bull & Bear Cycle analysis

DLF Big bull cycle:

There are 70-79%(2 times), 102-113%*2 times), 134-150%(2 times) and 318%(1 time) big bull run in DLF.

Time cycle: From the bottom, the stock has topped within 5-10 months. Usually, from the top, the stock has taken 18-21 months.

Now, from the above, we can say that when the stock is in the bull run we can expect 70+% up move within 10 months.

Currently, the stock is in a bull run from 11th August 2017 (153) and reached top 234.90 with 54% increase, so now we can expect another 20%+ move within May 2018. However, if we absorb deeply the bottom on 11th August 2017 is similar to 10th August 2007 bottom. In 2007 the stock went up by 150% within 5 months and made the top on 14th January 2008. So, we may also see a trend reversal in January 2018 which will also be a 5-month bull run.

DLF_withlog_bigbull_02Dec17 DLF_withoutlog_bigbull_02Dec17

DLF big bear cycle:

There are 58-59%(three times), 40%(one times), 67% (one times) and 89%(onetime) bigger correction in DLF.

Time cycle: From the top, the stock has bottomed within 4-5 months (3 times), 12-13 months (two times), 32 months( one time).
Usually, from bottom to bottom the stock will take 14-16 months.

Now, from the above, we can say that whenever the stock is in correction/bear we can expect 40+% correction within 4-5 month period.

DLF_withoutlog_bigbear_03Dec17 DLF_withlog_bigbear_03Dec17


SBI bear & bull cycle analysis

SBI big bull run:

There are 398%(1 time), 294%(1 time), 162-186%(2 times), 105-136%(5 times), 78%(2 times) and 52-62%(2 times) big bull rally in SBIN stock.
Time cycle: Usually, the SBIN has topped within 4-5 months (5 times), 9-10(2 times), 13-17(2 times), 20-21(3 times) and 28 months(1 time) from the bottom. Also, high to high range from 9- 34 months.

From the above analysis, we can deduce that when SBIN is in bull run the stock may top within 28 months from the bottom and one can expect a minimum of 52+% move.

Currently, from 12th February 2016 bottom the stock has rallied for 136% and made the top on 26th October 2017, which is 20 months and from previous top i.e, Jan 2015 top to current top it comes around 33 months. So, as per time cycle, we may see a bull run trend reversal now. However, if bull continues the stock may top in May-June 2018 (28 months).

SBIN_withoutlog_bigbull_07Dec17 SBIN_withlog_bigbull_07Dec17

SBI Big bear cycle:

There are 32-34%(3 times), 40-44%(5 times), 47-49% (2 times), 53-55% (3 times) and 63% (1 times) bigger corrections in SBIN history.

Times Cycle:
During the correction, the stock has made a bottom in 1-3 months( 4 times), 5-7 months( 5 times), 10 months( one time) and 13-15 months (4 times). Further, usually from bottom to bottom the stock takes 9-34 months.

From the analysis, we can infer that whenever the stock is in correction we can expect a minimum correction of 32+% within 15 months.

SBIN_withlog_bigbear_07Dec17 SBIN_withoutlog_bigbear_07Dec17


Reliance Industries: When is the right time to invest?

Reliance Industries Big bull cycle:

Initially, the big bull run period used to be in the range of 12,15,16 & 18 (12-18 months) with an increase of minimum 128% to max of 372% (4 times). And there is one big cycle for 44 months for 1040% move. However, there also used to be sub period of 3-4 months for 40-70% move(4 times). So, we can infer that whenever the bull rally exceeds beyond 4 months, we can expect at-least 120+% move within next 12 months.

Typically, the high to high took 10-13 months(3 times), 17-18 months (2 times), 27-28 months (2 times). Nevertheless, two times the stock took 45 and 60 months.

Now, from March 2015 bottom the stock has rallied for 32 months (142%) and 42 months from May 2014 top till now. So there is a possibility of top in 45th month i.,e Jan-Feb 2018, but if the bull run continues the stock may rally till Nov 2018-Apr 2019 (44-60 months).

Relianceindustries_withlog_bigbull_05Dec17 Relianceindustries_withoutlog_bigbull_05Dec17

Reliance Industries big bear cycle:

Generally, the stock correction period ranges from 5-9 months(4 times) for 69%, 54%, 51%, 36% and sharp correction for 1-3 months (5 times) for 35%, 38%, 41%, 47%, 62%. So, whenever the stock is in correction one can expect a minimum fall of 35+% within 9 months.

Also, Whenever the stock has rallied for more than 300+% it end up being corrected for 70+% within 12 months and this has happened two times in the history (1997 & 2008).

Typically, low to low range from 18-20 months(4 times), 43 and 53 months once. So, 20 months from March 2015 bottom will be November 2011 which as a small bottom and 20 months from here the stock may bottom again, which will be in June-July 2018. However, if the current bull run continues the cycle may enter 43 or 53 month period which extends to October 2018 to August 2019 for next bottom.

Relianceindustries_withoutlog_bigbear_05Dec17 Relianceindustries_withlog_bigbear_05Dec17


Axis Bank bull & bear monthly cycle analysis 1

Axis Bank Big bear cycle:

There are 78%(one time), 61%(one time), 51%(two times), 43%(one times) and 33-34% big bear cycle in Axis bank.

Time cycle: From top the stock has bottomed within 14-15 months (2 times), 8-10 months(2 times), 3-4 months(3 times).

Now, from this we can deduce that when the stock is in bigger correction (big cycle) we can expect 50+% correction within 15 months. There are smaller corrections for 33-44% within 4 months.

Axisbank_withoutlog_bigbear_03Dec17Axisbank_withlog_bigbear_03Dec17

Axis Bank Big bull run:

There are 808%(one time), 477-487%(two time), 305-355%(three times), 74-97%(two times) big bull run in Axis bank.

Time cycle: From bottom the stock has topped within 19-22 months(5 times), 28 month(1 time), 16 month(1 time), and 8 month(1 time).

Now, from this we can deduce that when the stock is in bull run we can expect 74+% up move within 22 months.

Currently, if we consider the bull run from 18th January 2016( 366.75) the market has topped on 7th Sept 2016 with 74% up move and still the same bull run is continuing means the stock may top within March 2018 which will be 36 or 18 months from top to top.

However, November 2017 being 22 months from January 2016 which is usual bull run period for Axis bank, we may see a trend reversal from December 2017.

Axisbank_withoutlog_bigbull_03Dec17Axisbank_withlog_bigbull_03Dec17

 


Bangalore Gann Seminar on Upcoming Cycles, Saturday, July 15

Banglore Seminar 15 July 17_call 9005979886 www.ruchirgupta.co.in10
Dear Trader,

We are conducting the WD Gann Cycle Workshop for Timing and Trading 4 Equity/Stocks, one Gold, one Silver on 15th July 2017 (Saturday) at Bangalore.

Course Fees is inclusive of Tax, Delicious Lunch, Tea Snacks, Stationery

Benefits of this seminar
•Cycles costing 90,000 each available at 15,000 till 5th july, after 5th July 20,000. (we teach one cycle for 10,000 and in this seminar you will learn 9 cycles)
•Upcoming positional cycles in Nifty, Bank Nifty, Crude,Gold, Silver and Equity stocks
•Positional cycles for 20 days to 90 days for very big moves
•Few Above 80% accurate cycles
•Most 100% accurate cycles
•Cheaper cost
•Face to face learning

Topics Covered

•Gann Entry and Exit technique applicable to other Strategies
•Gann Stop revision and profit locking system
•One cycle for Nifty
•One cycle for Bank Nifty
•One cycle for Crude
•One cycle for Gold
•One cycle for Silver
•One cycle for Currency
•Three cycles for Equities
•Back testing to show the percentage of accuracy of these cycles
 *Cycle- To know what a cycle is referred here please read the following link this will also help to solve other queries- http://ruchirgupta.co.in/question-answers-page-gann-cycle-course/
Fees: 15,000
Date: 15 July 17

Time: 10 am to 6 pm

Venue:

High Calibre League, Above KFC, TRINE House, Kammanahalli Main Rd,HRBR Layout 3rd Block,Kalyan Nagar, HRBR Layout, Bangalore, 560043
Location is 33 Kms away from Kempegowda international airport. 1 hour drive from airport. Instead on entering inside the jammed city you will have hassle free reaching. Bangalore locals will have to drive 10-15 Kms to reach the venue.

Landmark: Near Kotak Mahindra Bank

You can register your seat by making payment @ 

Bank details

Ruchir Gupta

Axis Bank,

Account No. 912010058534970

IFSC Code: UTIB0001879

Feedback of past Mumbai Seminar- 
http://ruchirgupta.co.in/mumbai-seminar-upcoming-gann-cycles-25-june-2017/
https://youtu.be/ZAzFQXjAqq4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAzFQXjAqq4&feature=youtu.be

You may also call at 9005 979 886 for any queries or email to ruchirgupta2000@gmail.com to confirm your participation.

Regards,

Ruchir Gupta


This Sunday 25th June, Gann Seminar in Mumbai (Andheri East) last few seats left. Hurry!!!!!!!!!!

Mumbai Seminar 25 June 17_call 9005979886 www.ruchirgupta.co.in3
Dear Trader,

We are conducting the WD Gann Cycle Workshop for Timing and Trading 4 Equity/Stocks, one Gold, one Silver on 25th June 2017 (Sunday) at Andheri, Mumbai.

Course Fees is inclusive of Tax and Lunch

Benefits of this seminar
•Cycles costing 60,000 each available at 10,000. (we teach one cycle for 10,000 and in this seminar you will learn 6 cycles)
•Upcoming positional cycles in Gold, Silver and Equity stocks
•Positional cycles for 20 days to 90 days for very big moves
•Above 80% accurate cycles
•Few 100% accurate cycles
•Cheaper cost
•Face to face learning

Topics Covered

•Gann Entry and Exit technique applicable to other Strategies
•Gann Stop revision and profit locking system
•One cycle for Gold
•One cycle for Silver
•Four cycles for Equities
•Back testing to show the percentage of accuracy of these cycles

Date: 25 June 17

Timing 10am to 6pm

Venue: Blue Hat Fusion, 4 & 5 Radha CHS Ltd.,Telli Galli, opp. Chatwani Hall or opp. Workout Gym, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400069

Landmark: Near Workout Gym

You may also call at 9005 979 886 for any queries or email to ruchirgupta2000@gmail.com to confirm your participation.

Regards,

Ruchir Gupta