Monthly Archives: December 2017


USD/INR monthly bull and bear cycle analysis

USD/INR Big bull run:

Since 1973, USD/INR has come across 11 big bull runs for a maximum of 294.22% in 106 months and a low of 9.72% in 12 months. Additionally, there are 67% (one time), 44% (one time), 32-36% (3 times), 17-20% (2 times) and 9-12% (2 times) bull runs.

Time Cycle: During the big run, the currency has rallied for 106 months, 73 months and 52 months. However, the other bull run ranges are 7 months (one time), 10-12 months (2 times), 15-18 months (4 times) and 21 months (one time).
Further, from high to high the currency tops b/w 15-110 months, however, most often it has taken 20-40 months period.

So, by this, we can deduce that from bottom USD/INR may top in 7-21months. Nevertheless, if the bull run continues it may go beyond 52+ months. Also, during the bull run, one can expect a minimum of 10% move.

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USD/INR big bear cycles:

There are 21%(one time), 13-17%(5 times), 8-9%(three times) and 11% (one time) big bear cycles.

Time cycle: During the bear run, USD/INR has bottomed within 66 months (1 time), 29 months (1 time), 20 months (1 time), 13 months (1 time) and 5-9 months (5 times)(excluding current cycle).

So, any correction in USD/INR may generally take USD/INR down by at least 8%.

Now, the high on 25/02/2016(68.909) and low on 2/08/2017(63.595) which was nearly an 8% fall in 18 month period. If the low of 63.595 breaks, the market may go further down.

Further, from time cycle most of the times market bottom between 20-44 months. So, if we consider current market still in the downtrend we may see a further downfall from 68.909 top and stock may bottom in January 2018 (44 months). However, if the bearishness continues means it may go until 82+ months.

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DLF: Bull & Bear Cycle analysis

DLF Big bull cycle:

There are 70-79%(2 times), 102-113%*2 times), 134-150%(2 times) and 318%(1 time) big bull run in DLF.

Time cycle: From the bottom, the stock has topped within 5-10 months. Usually, from the top, the stock has taken 18-21 months.

Now, from the above, we can say that when the stock is in the bull run we can expect 70+% up move within 10 months.

Currently, the stock is in a bull run from 11th August 2017 (153) and reached top 234.90 with 54% increase, so now we can expect another 20%+ move within May 2018. However, if we absorb deeply the bottom on 11th August 2017 is similar to 10th August 2007 bottom. In 2007 the stock went up by 150% within 5 months and made the top on 14th January 2008. So, we may also see a trend reversal in January 2018 which will also be a 5-month bull run.

DLF_withlog_bigbull_02Dec17 DLF_withoutlog_bigbull_02Dec17

DLF big bear cycle:

There are 58-59%(three times), 40%(one times), 67% (one times) and 89%(onetime) bigger correction in DLF.

Time cycle: From the top, the stock has bottomed within 4-5 months (3 times), 12-13 months (two times), 32 months( one time).
Usually, from bottom to bottom the stock will take 14-16 months.

Now, from the above, we can say that whenever the stock is in correction/bear we can expect 40+% correction within 4-5 month period.

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SBI bear & bull cycle analysis

SBI big bull run:

There are 398%(1 time), 294%(1 time), 162-186%(2 times), 105-136%(5 times), 78%(2 times) and 52-62%(2 times) big bull rally in SBIN stock.
Time cycle: Usually, the SBIN has topped within 4-5 months (5 times), 9-10(2 times), 13-17(2 times), 20-21(3 times) and 28 months(1 time) from the bottom. Also, high to high range from 9- 34 months.

From the above analysis, we can deduce that when SBIN is in bull run the stock may top within 28 months from the bottom and one can expect a minimum of 52+% move.

Currently, from 12th February 2016 bottom the stock has rallied for 136% and made the top on 26th October 2017, which is 20 months and from previous top i.e, Jan 2015 top to current top it comes around 33 months. So, as per time cycle, we may see a bull run trend reversal now. However, if bull continues the stock may top in May-June 2018 (28 months).

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SBI Big bear cycle:

There are 32-34%(3 times), 40-44%(5 times), 47-49% (2 times), 53-55% (3 times) and 63% (1 times) bigger corrections in SBIN history.

Times Cycle:
During the correction, the stock has made a bottom in 1-3 months( 4 times), 5-7 months( 5 times), 10 months( one time) and 13-15 months (4 times). Further, usually from bottom to bottom the stock takes 9-34 months.

From the analysis, we can infer that whenever the stock is in correction we can expect a minimum correction of 32+% within 15 months.

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Reliance Industries: When is the right time to invest?

Reliance Industries Big bull cycle:

Initially, the big bull run period used to be in the range of 12,15,16 & 18 (12-18 months) with an increase of minimum 128% to max of 372% (4 times). And there is one big cycle for 44 months for 1040% move. However, there also used to be sub period of 3-4 months for 40-70% move(4 times). So, we can infer that whenever the bull rally exceeds beyond 4 months, we can expect at-least 120+% move within next 12 months.

Typically, the high to high took 10-13 months(3 times), 17-18 months (2 times), 27-28 months (2 times). Nevertheless, two times the stock took 45 and 60 months.

Now, from March 2015 bottom the stock has rallied for 32 months (142%) and 42 months from May 2014 top till now. So there is a possibility of top in 45th month i.,e Jan-Feb 2018, but if the bull run continues the stock may rally till Nov 2018-Apr 2019 (44-60 months).

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Reliance Industries big bear cycle:

Generally, the stock correction period ranges from 5-9 months(4 times) for 69%, 54%, 51%, 36% and sharp correction for 1-3 months (5 times) for 35%, 38%, 41%, 47%, 62%. So, whenever the stock is in correction one can expect a minimum fall of 35+% within 9 months.

Also, Whenever the stock has rallied for more than 300+% it end up being corrected for 70+% within 12 months and this has happened two times in the history (1997 & 2008).

Typically, low to low range from 18-20 months(4 times), 43 and 53 months once. So, 20 months from March 2015 bottom will be November 2011 which as a small bottom and 20 months from here the stock may bottom again, which will be in June-July 2018. However, if the current bull run continues the cycle may enter 43 or 53 month period which extends to October 2018 to August 2019 for next bottom.

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Axis Bank bull & bear monthly cycle analysis 1

Axis Bank Big bear cycle:

There are 78%(one time), 61%(one time), 51%(two times), 43%(one times) and 33-34% big bear cycle in Axis bank.

Time cycle: From top the stock has bottomed within 14-15 months (2 times), 8-10 months(2 times), 3-4 months(3 times).

Now, from this we can deduce that when the stock is in bigger correction (big cycle) we can expect 50+% correction within 15 months. There are smaller corrections for 33-44% within 4 months.

Axisbank_withoutlog_bigbear_03Dec17Axisbank_withlog_bigbear_03Dec17

Axis Bank Big bull run:

There are 808%(one time), 477-487%(two time), 305-355%(three times), 74-97%(two times) big bull run in Axis bank.

Time cycle: From bottom the stock has topped within 19-22 months(5 times), 28 month(1 time), 16 month(1 time), and 8 month(1 time).

Now, from this we can deduce that when the stock is in bull run we can expect 74+% up move within 22 months.

Currently, if we consider the bull run from 18th January 2016( 366.75) the market has topped on 7th Sept 2016 with 74% up move and still the same bull run is continuing means the stock may top within March 2018 which will be 36 or 18 months from top to top.

However, November 2017 being 22 months from January 2016 which is usual bull run period for Axis bank, we may see a trend reversal from December 2017.

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