DLF: Bull & Bear Cycle analysis

DLF Big bull cycle:

There are 70-79%(2 times), 102-113%*2 times), 134-150%(2 times) and 318%(1 time) big bull run in DLF.

Time cycle: From the bottom, the stock has topped within 5-10 months. Usually, from the top, the stock has taken 18-21 months.

Now, from the above, we can say that when the stock is in the bull run we can expect 70+% up move within 10 months.

Currently, the stock is in a bull run from 11th August 2017 (153) and reached top 234.90 with 54% increase, so now we can expect another 20%+ move within May 2018. However, if we absorb deeply the bottom on 11th August 2017 is similar to 10th August 2007 bottom. In 2007 the stock went up by 150% within 5 months and made the top on 14th January 2008. So, we may also see a trend reversal in January 2018 which will also be a 5-month bull run.

DLF_withlog_bigbull_02Dec17 DLF_withoutlog_bigbull_02Dec17

DLF big bear cycle:

There are 58-59%(three times), 40%(one times), 67% (one times) and 89%(onetime) bigger correction in DLF.

Time cycle: From the top, the stock has bottomed within 4-5 months (3 times), 12-13 months (two times), 32 months( one time).
Usually, from bottom to bottom the stock will take 14-16 months.

Now, from the above, we can say that whenever the stock is in correction/bear we can expect 40+% correction within 4-5 month period.

DLF_withoutlog_bigbear_03Dec17 DLF_withlog_bigbear_03Dec17

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