HDIL Update on Elliott Wave Analysis, a broader review 8th June 2015


HDIL Elliott Wave Analysis a broader review. What I updated on 15th May 15 was the correction to 5 waves that started on 14th Dec 14. HDIL achieved its target. Now, lets look at the even bigger picture and where we stand in it. Preferred view is that the full 5 waves trend that started on August 2013, is under correction. While, the alternative view is that 1,2,3,4 are complete what has been labeled as 5th is 1st of the 5th wave. Volume analysis very much clarifies these doubts, and they suggest the preferred count.

Preferred Elliott Wave Count Analysis
For now, I am analyzing HDIL based on our preferred count, will interfere with new counts if alternate count shows its symptoms.

 

HDIL - Alternate 1 - Jun-08 1113 AM (1 week)

Time Analysis
Last time I disclosed that any correction must normally complete atleast complete 38% of the full impulse move. This time I am disclosing one more key to analyse correction. The correction of the full 5 waves must be greater is time and price as compared to 2nd and 4th wave of the smaller degree. Meaning that the corrections of 19 weeks in wave 2 and and 27 weeks in wave 4 must be exceeded Time wise. If we see the current correction in HDIL its just 7 weeks, you can know time wise a good time remains for time correction to get completed. This is the Elliott Wave Secret no one knows except me and few of my students who have started learning Elliott Waves with me.

Also, know that the 5 waves on upside have been 88 weeks, 38% of this comes at 33 weeks which again validates the correction greater than 27 weeks.

Price Analysis
You will note that the chart is set to semi- logarithmic scale, and on this scale when I analyse price of 4th wave which is Rs 55 in real terms, but from the top of 5th wave it stands out to be Rs 69. The top of 143 less 69 brings us to around 74. So, this implies HDIL must come to this area to meet the wave Price balance. Without the logarithmic scale, we must have reached 88, which we are already done with fall of 57 Rs and correction till 86.

Support Area
Now lets try to assess the area where it can take support.
1) We have got 74 from the price Analysis
2) We know that correction very often takes support on 4th wave area of a smaller degree, which is at 59. This is also one of the facts that very few people know about Elliott Wave.
3) Without logarithmic Internal retracements lie from 61 to 70 area representing 62% and 71% respectively.
4) With Logarithm the range is 75 to 61 with 38% and 50% internal retracements respectively.

So, I suppose by reading the 4 points you must have known the probable area of support which could be drawn from 74 to 59.

Is this information not useful? the analyst can very well refrain from entering HDIL entering HDIL investment at current prices and current times. Who would like to tie their investments for so many more weeks? or buy at 100 current price when he/she knows that the stock could be found on 74 to 59 levels. If you think Elliott Wave analysis is worth and is useful to you in identifying entries and exits based on Elliott Waves call me at 9005 979 886 to learn this great tool. I will teach you how to apply it. Thanks for reading.

You must the above article is for educational purpose with my views based on the Elliott wave analysis.

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