Reliance Industries: When is the right time to invest?


Reliance Industries Big bull cycle:

Initially, the big bull run period used to be in the range of 12,15,16 & 18 (12-18 months) with an increase of minimum 128% to max of 372% (4 times). And there is one big cycle for 44 months for 1040% move. However, there also used to be sub period of 3-4 months for 40-70% move(4 times). So, we can infer that whenever the bull rally exceeds beyond 4 months, we can expect at-least 120+% move within next 12 months.

Typically, the high to high took 10-13 months(3 times), 17-18 months (2 times), 27-28 months (2 times). Nevertheless, two times the stock took 45 and 60 months.

Now, from March 2015 bottom the stock has rallied for 32 months (142%) and 42 months from May 2014 top till now. So there is a possibility of top in 45th month i.,e Jan-Feb 2018, but if the bull run continues the stock may rally till Nov 2018-Apr 2019 (44-60 months).

Relianceindustries_withlog_bigbull_05Dec17 Relianceindustries_withoutlog_bigbull_05Dec17

Reliance Industries big bear cycle:

Generally, the stock correction period ranges from 5-9 months(4 times) for 69%, 54%, 51%, 36% and sharp correction for 1-3 months (5 times) for 35%, 38%, 41%, 47%, 62%. So, whenever the stock is in correction one can expect a minimum fall of 35+% within 9 months.

Also, Whenever the stock has rallied for more than 300+% it end up being corrected for 70+% within 12 months and this has happened two times in the history (1997 & 2008).

Typically, low to low range from 18-20 months(4 times), 43 and 53 months once. So, 20 months from March 2015 bottom will be November 2011 which as a small bottom and 20 months from here the stock may bottom again, which will be in June-July 2018. However, if the current bull run continues the cycle may enter 43 or 53 month period which extends to October 2018 to August 2019 for next bottom.

Relianceindustries_withoutlog_bigbear_05Dec17 Relianceindustries_withlog_bigbear_05Dec17

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