SBI bear & bull cycle analysis 1


SBI big bull run:

There are 398%(1 time), 294%(1 time), 162-186%(2 times), 105-136%(5 times), 78%(2 times) and 52-62%(2 times) big bull rally in SBIN stock.
Time cycle: Usually, the SBIN has topped within 4-5 months (5 times), 9-10(2 times), 13-17(2 times), 20-21(3 times) and 28 months(1 time) from the bottom. Also, high to high range from 9- 34 months.

From the above analysis, we can deduce that when SBIN is in bull run the stock may top within 28 months from the bottom and one can expect a minimum of 52+% move.

Currently, from 12th February 2016 bottom the stock has rallied for 136% and made the top on 26th October 2017, which is 20 months and from previous top i.e, Jan 2015 top to current top it comes around 33 months. So, as per time cycle, we may see a bull run trend reversal now. However, if bull continues the stock may top in May-June 2018 (28 months).

SBIN_withoutlog_bigbull_07Dec17 SBIN_withlog_bigbull_07Dec17

SBI Big bear cycle:

There are 32-34%(3 times), 40-44%(5 times), 47-49% (2 times), 53-55% (3 times) and 63% (1 times) bigger corrections in SBIN history.

Times Cycle:
During the correction, the stock has made a bottom in 1-3 months( 4 times), 5-7 months( 5 times), 10 months( one time) and 13-15 months (4 times). Further, usually from bottom to bottom the stock takes 9-34 months.

From the analysis, we can infer that whenever the stock is in correction we can expect a minimum correction of 32+% within 15 months.

SBIN_withlog_bigbear_07Dec17 SBIN_withoutlog_bigbear_07Dec17


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