USD/INR monthly bull and bear cycle analysis

USD/INR Big bull run:

Since 1973, USD/INR has come across 11 big bull runs for a maximum of 294.22% in 106 months and a low of 9.72% in 12 months. Additionally, there are 67% (one time), 44% (one time), 32-36% (3 times), 17-20% (2 times) and 9-12% (2 times) bull runs.

Time Cycle: During the big run, the currency has rallied for 106 months, 73 months and 52 months. However, the other bull run ranges are 7 months (one time), 10-12 months (2 times), 15-18 months (4 times) and 21 months (one time).
Further, from high to high the currency tops b/w 15-110 months, however, most often it has taken 20-40 months period.

So, by this, we can deduce that from bottom USD/INR may top in 7-21months. Nevertheless, if the bull run continues it may go beyond 52+ months. Also, during the bull run, one can expect a minimum of 10% move.

USD:INR_withlog_bigbull_09Dec17 USD:INR_withoutlog_bigbull_09Dec17

USD/INR big bear cycles:

There are 21%(one time), 13-17%(5 times), 8-9%(three times) and 11% (one time) big bear cycles.

Time cycle: During the bear run, USD/INR has bottomed within 66 months (1 time), 29 months (1 time), 20 months (1 time), 13 months (1 time) and 5-9 months (5 times)(excluding current cycle).

So, any correction in USD/INR may generally take USD/INR down by at least 8%.

Now, the high on 25/02/2016(68.909) and low on 2/08/2017(63.595) which was nearly an 8% fall in 18 month period. If the low of 63.595 breaks, the market may go further down.

Further, from time cycle most of the times market bottom between 20-44 months. So, if we consider current market still in the downtrend we may see a further downfall from 68.909 top and stock may bottom in January 2018 (44 months). However, if the bearishness continues means it may go until 82+ months.

USD:INR_withoutlog_bigbear_09Dec17 USD:INR_withlog_bigbear_09Dec17

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